Live · Updated Every Bar
Every forecast, graded against a trivial baseline
On every closed bar, the engine logs its own 30-bar forecast for BTCUSDT — median move and the p10–p90 outcome band — before the outcome is known. When the horizon closes, it is scored automatically against the dumbest baseline we could write: the 10th–90th percentile of outcomes already known at that moment. If we lose to it, this page says so.
BTCUSDT
conformal band scale: ×0.75 Band vs Trivial Baseline
+7%
Winkler score 14.54 vs 15.56 — we win
our band 5.96% wide · baseline 2.14% · lower score is better
Direction Hit Rate
58.2%
95% CI 29–83% on 9 independent outcomes · a coin flip
Resolved Forecasts
411
292 live · 119 walk-forward · 30 pending
coverage 84.7% · MAE 1.64%
Engine vs Engine
every engine forecasts every bar · same anchors, same grading| Engine | Winkler | vs baseline | Band width | Direction | Resolved (live · walk-fwd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| priceShape | 10.85 | -46% | 7.24% | 49.3% · coin flip | 1077 · 119 |
| featureV1 live | 14.54 | +7% | 5.96% | 58.2% · coin flip | 292 · 119 |
| Volatility-scaled band no retrieval | 15.69 | +7% | 2.88% | 52.3% · coin flip | 271 · 119 |
| Volatility-scaled band, fitted exponent no retrieval | — | — | — | 63.7% · coin flip | 41 · 119 |
Every engine logs a forecast for the same bar, before the outcome is known, and is graded the same way. A newer engine does not get a cleaner slate than the one it replaces. The rows marked no retrieval use no pattern search at all — they scale past outcomes by how much this market is moving now. They are here because, measured over 200 anchors on each of 14 configurations, that scaling is what fixed calibration and the retrieval was not. The two differ only in how hard the band reacts to current volatility: the plain one assumes today's level holds for the whole horizon, the fitted one estimates how much of it actually carries forward, and that exponent is fitted walk-forward on closed bars only. Winkler is scored on live records only, so a row that has just started logging shows — until it has enough of them. Walk-forward rows are seeded from history and counted separately; they never enter the head-to-head.
How to read this honestly
Band coverage is not evidence. Conformal calibration forces coverage to the nominal 80% by construction, so it can never fail — which is exactly why we stopped using it as the headline. At fixed coverage the only thing that matters is sharpness: how narrow the band is. That is what the Winkler score above measures, and it is scored against a baseline anyone can compute from past outcomes alone.
Direction near 50% is expected and we do not sell it. Consecutive forecasts overlap by 29 of their 30 bars, so the confidence interval above is computed on independent outcomes rather than raw row counts — raw counts would overstate significance by roughly 5×.
Methodology
• forecast logged before outcome known
• baseline sees only already-closed outcomes
• zero look-ahead, zero survivorship
• significance on n/30 independent points
• misses are never deleted
Forecast vs Reality
BTCUSDT · 1h · q40 → 30 bars ahead| Forecast At | Price | Predicted Median | p10…p90 Band | Actual | Direction | In Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 18:00 | $72,431 | -2.63% | -5.3% … +2.1% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 20, 17:00 | $72,738 | -3.79% | -6.2% … +1.2% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 20, 16:00 | $72,837 | -3.98% | -6.4% … +2.0% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 20, 15:00 | $72,471 | -2.68% | -5.2% … +4.0% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 20, 14:00 | $71,827 | -2.73% | -5.4% … +3.5% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 20, 13:00 | $71,692 | -2.13% | -5.0% … +3.9% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 20, 12:00 | $71,952 | -2.49% | -4.9% … +4.2% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 20, 11:00 | $71,927 | -1.99% | -4.8% … +3.5% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 20, 10:00 | $71,996 | -2.15% | -4.8% … +3.3% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 20, 09:00 | $71,790 | -2.04% | -4.8% … +4.1% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 20, 08:00 | $71,592 | -1.95% | -5.0% … +4.1% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 20, 07:00 | $69,816 | -0.75% | -4.4% … +5.3% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 20, 06:00 | $69,852 | -0.81% | -4.9% … +5.2% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 20, 05:00 | $69,407 | -1.21% | -4.8% … +5.0% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 20, 04:00 | $69,492 | -1.57% | -5.0% … +5.7% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 20, 03:00 | $69,196 | +0.20% | -4.5% … +6.4% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 20, 02:00 | $69,301 | -0.60% | -4.5% … +5.7% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 20, 01:00 | $69,722 | -2.57% | -5.6% … +4.7% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 20, 24:00 | $69,420 | -2.29% | -5.3% … +3.7% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 19, 23:00 | $69,335 | -2.28% | -5.5% … +3.0% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 19, 22:00 | $69,259 | -1.63% | -5.4% … +3.6% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 19, 21:00 | $69,709 | -2.15% | -6.0% … +2.9% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 19, 20:00 | $69,048 | -1.62% | -5.0% … +3.0% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 19, 19:00 | $68,429 | -1.28% | -5.0% … +3.7% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 19, 18:00 | $68,396 | -1.23% | -4.3% … +4.0% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 19, 17:00 | $68,197 | -1.12% | -4.3% … +4.6% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 19, 16:00 | $68,465 | -1.33% | -4.6% … +4.1% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 19, 15:00 | $68,554 | -1.52% | -4.7% … +4.2% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 19, 14:00 | $65,923 | -0.23% | -3.1% … +3.6% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 19, 13:00 | $65,012 | -0.24% | -2.8% … +2.7% | pending | … | … |
| Aug 19, 12:00 | $64,882 | -0.78% | -4.7% … +2.2% | +11.64% | MISS | ✗ |
| Aug 19, 11:00 | $64,516 | -0.37% | -4.5% … +2.8% | +12.74% | MISS | ✗ |
| Aug 19, 10:00 | $64,457 | -0.07% | -4.2% … +3.0% | +13.00% | MISS | ✗ |
| Aug 19, 09:00 | $64,427 | -0.01% | -3.4% … +2.1% | +12.49% | MISS | ✗ |
| Aug 19, 08:00 | $64,414 | +0.60% | -2.0% … +2.7% | +11.51% | HIT | ✗ |
| Aug 19, 07:00 | $64,296 | +1.18% | -1.0% … +3.6% | +11.50% | HIT | ✗ |
| Aug 19, 06:00 | $64,340 | +1.25% | -0.9% … +4.4% | +11.83% | HIT | ✗ |
| Aug 19, 05:00 | $64,236 | +1.26% | -1.2% … +3.6% | +11.97% | HIT | ✗ |
| Aug 19, 04:00 | $64,316 | +0.81% | -1.4% … +3.0% | +11.94% | HIT | ✗ |
| Aug 19, 03:00 | $64,331 | +0.70% | -0.6% … +3.6% | +11.60% | HIT | ✗ |
| Aug 19, 02:00 | $64,352 | +0.55% | -0.6% … +3.3% | +11.25% | HIT | ✗ |
| Aug 19, 01:00 | $64,400 | +0.52% | -1.3% … +3.1% | +8.41% | HIT | ✗ |
| Aug 19, 24:00 | $64,488 | +0.43% | -0.6% … +2.4% | +8.32% | HIT | ✗ |
| Aug 18, 23:00 | $64,725 | +0.25% | -1.0% … +2.7% | +7.23% | HIT | ✗ |
| Aug 18, 22:00 | $64,634 | +0.16% | -1.4% … +3.0% | +7.52% | HIT | ✗ |
| Aug 18, 21:00 | $64,605 | +0.30% | -0.4% … +3.7% | +7.11% | HIT | ✗ |
| Aug 18, 20:00 | $64,582 | +0.47% | -1.7% … +4.8% | +7.31% | HIT | ✗ |
| Aug 18, 19:00 | $64,643 | +0.51% | -1.6% … +4.7% | +7.86% | HIT | ✗ |
| Aug 18, 18:00 | $64,772 | +0.16% | -1.7% … +4.1% | +7.18% | HIT | ✗ |
| Aug 18, 17:00 | $64,670 | +0.04% | -1.9% … +4.4% | +7.21% | HIT | ✗ |
| Aug 18, 16:00 | $64,840 | -0.40% | -2.6% … +1.7% | +6.82% | MISS | ✗ |
| Aug 18, 15:00 | $64,855 | -0.37% | -3.0% … +1.6% | +7.48% | MISS | ✗ |
| Aug 18, 14:00 | $64,714 | -0.30% | -3.0% … +2.3% | +6.70% | MISS | ✗ |
| Aug 18, 13:00 | $64,220 | -0.06% | -2.1% … +1.9% | +6.55% | MISS | ✗ |
| Aug 18, 12:00 | $64,230 | -0.02% | -1.6% … +2.1% | +6.49% | MISS | ✗ |
| Aug 18, 11:00 | $64,351 | -0.34% | -2.2% … +2.5% | +5.98% | MISS | ✗ |
| Aug 18, 10:00 | $64,203 | +0.03% | -2.2% … +3.0% | +6.64% | HIT | ✗ |
| Aug 18, 09:00 | $64,172 | -0.00% | -2.5% … +3.2% | +6.83% | MISS | ✗ |
| Aug 18, 08:00 | $64,296 | -0.05% | -3.2% … +3.3% | +2.53% | MISS | ✓ |
| Aug 18, 07:00 | $64,199 | +0.60% | -2.3% … +4.7% | +1.27% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 18, 06:00 | $64,318 | +0.71% | -2.5% … +5.3% | +0.88% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 18, 05:00 | $64,243 | +0.88% | -1.6% … +5.7% | +0.42% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 18, 04:00 | $64,210 | +1.01% | -1.5% … +6.4% | +0.38% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 18, 03:00 | $64,185 | +0.90% | -1.9% … +7.4% | +0.38% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 18, 02:00 | $64,103 | +1.01% | -2.2% … +7.1% | +0.48% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 18, 01:00 | $64,200 | +0.82% | -2.5% … +5.7% | +0.15% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 18, 24:00 | $64,384 | +0.88% | -2.6% … +5.5% | -0.07% | MISS | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 23:00 | $64,532 | +0.68% | -2.9% … +5.4% | -0.46% | MISS | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 22:00 | $64,291 | +1.18% | -2.4% … +8.6% | +0.04% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 21:00 | $64,382 | +1.22% | -2.4% … +8.7% | -0.08% | MISS | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 20:00 | $64,393 | +1.15% | -2.5% … +7.7% | -0.06% | MISS | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 19:00 | $64,310 | +0.78% | -2.4% … +8.7% | +0.14% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 18:00 | $64,429 | +1.37% | -2.3% … +8.6% | +0.09% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 17:00 | $64,326 | +2.11% | -1.9% … +9.3% | +0.62% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 16:00 | $64,116 | +1.91% | -1.9% … +9.7% | +0.81% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 15:00 | $64,200 | +1.79% | -2.1% … +9.7% | +0.63% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 14:00 | $63,903 | +2.13% | -1.8% … +9.7% | +1.06% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 13:00 | $63,672 | +2.24% | -1.3% … +9.9% | +1.52% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 12:00 | $63,555 | +1.83% | -1.2% … +9.2% | +1.92% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 11:00 | $63,631 | +2.32% | -1.1% … +9.2% | +1.63% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 10:00 | $63,692 | +1.58% | -1.4% … +7.8% | +1.80% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 09:00 | $63,324 | +1.10% | -1.0% … +6.7% | +2.42% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 08:00 | $63,381 | +0.99% | -1.1% … +6.6% | +2.10% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 07:00 | $63,514 | +0.76% | -1.4% … +6.5% | +1.11% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 06:00 | $63,668 | +1.62% | -1.2% … +6.8% | +0.88% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 05:00 | $63,520 | +1.22% | -1.2% … +6.5% | +1.31% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 04:00 | $63,532 | +1.13% | -1.0% … +6.3% | +1.06% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 03:00 | $63,429 | +0.99% | -1.3% … +5.4% | +1.17% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 02:00 | $63,403 | +0.58% | -1.5% … +4.6% | +1.41% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 17, 01:00 | $63,116 | -1.61% | -8.2% … +0.7% | +1.72% | MISS | ✗ |
| Aug 17, 24:00 | $62,918 | -1.81% | -5.6% … +0.5% | +2.23% | MISS | ✗ |
| Aug 16, 23:00 | $62,900 | -2.14% | -6.9% … +0.5% | +2.13% | MISS | ✗ |
| Aug 16, 22:00 | $62,914 | -1.77% | -7.6% … +0.2% | +2.06% | MISS | ✗ |
| Aug 16, 21:00 | $62,930 | -1.07% | -4.9% … +2.3% | +1.99% | MISS | ✓ |
| Aug 16, 20:00 | $63,068 | +1.92% | -0.9% … +5.9% | +1.64% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 16, 19:00 | $63,109 | +2.29% | -0.9% … +5.9% | +1.73% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 16, 18:00 | $63,140 | +2.00% | 0.1% … +6.5% | +1.97% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 16, 17:00 | $63,159 | +2.73% | 0.3% … +6.2% | +2.17% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 16, 16:00 | $63,260 | +2.69% | -0.1% … +6.6% | +1.63% | HIT | ✓ |
| Aug 16, 15:00 | $63,146 | -0.01% | -2.2% … +2.4% | +1.96% | MISS | ✓ |
Give your agent the same forecasts — with the same accountability
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