Live · Updated Every Bar
Every forecast logged before the candle closes. Compared with a historical baseline.
On every closed bar, the engine logs its 30-bar forecast for BTCUSDT — the terminal-close estimate and p10–p90 band — before the outcome is known. Compare observed range coverage and forecast quality with a historical baseline. The measurements below determine whether a configuration improves on that baseline.
BTCUSDT
conformal band scale: ×0.75 Terminal-close Coverage (p10–p90)
82.2%
Share of resolved final closes inside the published band. Nominal coverage is 80%; this does not measure the entire price path or stop-loss performance.
Observed Direction Hit Rate
44.5%
This sample does not establish a directional advantage over a coin flip.
Predictive Sharpness (Winkler)
-13%
Higher or equal Winkler loss than the historical baseline. This configuration has not improved range quality.
Immutable Verified Forecasts
2171
2052 live · 30 pending in flight · MAE 1.88%
Engine vs Baseline
every engine forecasts every bar · same anchors, same grading| Engine | Winkler | vs baseline | Band width | Direction | Resolved (live · walk-fwd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| priceShape | 11.16 | -36% | 7.63% | 45.7% · no established direction edge | 2837 · 119 |
| featureV1 live | 11.21 | -13% | 7.26% | 44.5% · no established direction edge | 2052 · 119 |
| Volatility-scaled band no retrieval | 9.11 | +9% | 5.14% | 51.9% · no established direction edge | 2031 · 119 |
| Volatility-scaled band, fitted exponent no retrieval | 7.43 | +16% | 5.30% | 52.8% · no established direction edge | 1801 · 119 |
Every engine logs a forecast for the same bar, before the outcome is known, and is graded the same way. A newer engine does not get a cleaner slate than the one it replaces. The rows marked no retrieval use no pattern search at all — they scale past outcomes by how much this market is moving now. They are here because, measured over 200 anchors on each of 14 configurations, that scaling is what fixed calibration and the retrieval was not.
Reading the evidence
Forecast quality and strategy performance need separate checks
Range coverage, forecast sharpness and directional accuracy answer different questions. A broad band can achieve high coverage without improving on a simple historical baseline. Winkler loss measures both width and missed outcomes.
These measurements evaluate forecasts, not executed trading strategies. Fees, slippage, event order and independent walk-forward strategy results are needed before inferring profitability. Historical analogue paths can help investigate a hypothesis even when a forecast does not beat its baseline.
Every forecast is permanently recorded to our database before the candle closes. Misses are never deleted, hidden, or back-adjusted.
Audit Integrity
• Forecast logged before bar closes
• Live WebSocket exchange stream
• Zero look-ahead, zero survivorship
• Strict walk-forward out-of-sample grading
• 100% transparent: losses included
Forecast vs Reality
BTCUSDT · 1h · q40 → 30 bars ahead| Forecast At | Price | Predicted Median | p10…p90 Band | Actual | Direction | In Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 02:00 | $78,458 | +1.62% | -0.3% … +5.2% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 2, 01:00 | $78,416 | +1.54% | -0.9% … +4.9% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 2, 24:00 | $78,138 | +2.29% | -0.5% … +6.4% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 23:00 | $78,354 | +2.22% | -0.8% … +6.4% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 22:00 | $77,824 | +1.20% | -1.6% … +4.9% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 21:00 | $77,890 | +1.94% | -1.0% … +4.0% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 20:00 | $77,906 | +2.00% | -1.1% … +4.4% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 19:00 | $77,799 | +2.19% | -1.2% … +4.9% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 18:00 | $77,892 | +2.01% | -1.0% … +4.9% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 17:00 | $77,981 | +2.33% | -0.7% … +5.2% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 16:00 | $78,150 | +2.02% | -2.2% … +5.7% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 15:00 | $77,988 | +1.23% | -0.9% … +4.6% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 14:00 | $78,056 | +1.51% | -0.9% … +5.0% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 13:00 | $78,035 | +1.13% | -2.3% … +4.8% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 12:00 | $77,890 | +1.17% | -2.2% … +3.9% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 11:00 | $77,963 | +0.61% | -2.1% … +3.3% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 10:00 | $78,038 | +0.35% | -2.0% … +3.2% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 09:00 | $78,125 | -0.19% | -2.1% … +1.5% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 08:00 | $78,285 | -0.53% | -2.4% … +1.8% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 07:00 | $77,991 | -0.22% | -2.2% … +2.2% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 06:00 | $78,036 | -0.28% | -2.5% … +2.1% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 05:00 | $77,922 | -0.17% | -2.4% … +1.8% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 04:00 | $77,821 | -0.11% | -2.6% … +2.1% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 03:00 | $77,802 | -0.02% | -2.1% … +2.7% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 02:00 | $77,742 | -0.14% | -2.9% … +1.9% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 01:00 | $77,728 | -0.01% | -2.4% … +2.6% | pending | … | … |
| Nov 1, 24:00 | $77,690 | -0.11% | -2.7% … +1.9% | pending | … | … |
| Oct 31, 23:00 | $77,582 | -0.41% | -2.4% … +1.4% | pending | … | … |
| Oct 31, 22:00 | $77,548 | -0.51% | -2.8% … +1.2% | pending | … | … |
| Oct 31, 21:00 | $77,682 | -0.41% | -3.8% … +1.3% | pending | … | … |
| Oct 31, 20:00 | $77,566 | -0.60% | -3.7% … +1.5% | +1.15% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 31, 19:00 | $77,589 | -0.58% | -2.3% … +1.1% | +1.07% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 31, 18:00 | $77,635 | -0.64% | -2.3% … +1.0% | +0.65% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 31, 17:00 | $77,719 | -0.84% | -3.2% … +0.7% | +0.82% | MISS | ✗ |
| Oct 31, 16:00 | $77,626 | -0.62% | -2.7% … +1.1% | +0.25% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 31, 15:00 | $77,622 | -0.46% | -2.9% … +2.0% | +0.34% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 31, 14:00 | $77,440 | -0.10% | -2.6% … +3.3% | +0.60% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 31, 13:00 | $77,543 | -0.14% | -2.7% … +1.2% | +0.33% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 31, 12:00 | $77,557 | -0.14% | -2.2% … +0.9% | +0.43% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 31, 11:00 | $77,619 | -0.71% | -2.3% … +0.4% | +0.47% | MISS | ✗ |
| Oct 31, 10:00 | $77,424 | -0.08% | -2.3% … +2.3% | +0.94% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 31, 09:00 | $77,473 | -0.20% | -2.3% … +2.9% | +0.66% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 31, 08:00 | $77,358 | +0.05% | -1.2% … +3.0% | +0.90% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 31, 07:00 | $77,356 | +0.41% | -0.8% … +3.1% | +0.88% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 31, 06:00 | $77,389 | +0.57% | -1.1% … +2.8% | +0.65% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 31, 05:00 | $77,270 | +0.55% | -1.8% … +3.0% | +0.90% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 31, 04:00 | $77,193 | +0.71% | -1.4% … +2.7% | +1.09% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 31, 03:00 | $77,171 | +0.69% | -2.0% … +2.5% | +1.24% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 31, 02:00 | $77,452 | -0.13% | -2.6% … +1.8% | +1.08% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 31, 01:00 | $77,406 | +0.15% | -2.7% … +1.7% | +0.76% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 31, 24:00 | $77,569 | -1.44% | -3.2% … +1.0% | +0.60% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 23:00 | $77,369 | -1.11% | -3.4% … +1.3% | +0.72% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 22:00 | $76,970 | -0.22% | -2.7% … +2.7% | +1.10% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 21:00 | $76,722 | -0.15% | -3.4% … +2.6% | +1.41% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 20:00 | $76,938 | -0.61% | -3.5% … +1.7% | +1.05% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 19:00 | $76,943 | -0.33% | -3.3% … +2.0% | +1.02% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 18:00 | $76,661 | -0.55% | -3.3% … +2.8% | +1.34% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 17:00 | $77,192 | -1.20% | -4.2% … +1.8% | +0.50% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 16:00 | $77,353 | -0.97% | -4.7% … +1.5% | +0.25% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 15:00 | $77,622 | -1.08% | -4.3% … +1.3% | +0.08% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 14:00 | $77,252 | -0.46% | -5.6% … +3.2% | +0.41% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 13:00 | $77,174 | -0.75% | -5.6% … +2.8% | +0.54% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 12:00 | $77,476 | -0.98% | -4.2% … +2.9% | +0.21% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 11:00 | $77,382 | -0.36% | -3.7% … +2.9% | +0.44% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 10:00 | $77,831 | -1.21% | -5.1% … +2.8% | -0.26% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 09:00 | $77,700 | -0.46% | -4.1% … +3.6% | -0.10% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 08:00 | $78,031 | -0.85% | -6.1% … +3.1% | -0.76% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 07:00 | $78,185 | -0.50% | -5.3% … +2.9% | -0.82% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 06:00 | $78,652 | -1.17% | -5.7% … +1.8% | -1.39% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 05:00 | $78,554 | -1.51% | -5.6% … +1.5% | -1.19% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 04:00 | $78,280 | -1.20% | -5.2% … +1.5% | -1.09% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 03:00 | $78,235 | -1.49% | -5.5% … +1.4% | -0.97% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 02:00 | $77,436 | -0.46% | -4.9% … +2.6% | -0.10% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 01:00 | $76,837 | +0.38% | -3.7% … +3.6% | +0.68% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 30, 24:00 | $77,252 | +0.42% | -3.8% … +3.3% | +0.18% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 29, 23:00 | $77,992 | -0.68% | -4.9% … +3.1% | -0.93% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 29, 22:00 | $79,011 | -1.20% | -5.5% … +1.9% | -2.30% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 29, 21:00 | $79,033 | -1.32% | -4.3% … +1.7% | -2.36% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 29, 20:00 | $78,852 | +0.41% | -3.9% … +3.2% | -1.78% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 29, 19:00 | $80,849 | +0.03% | -1.7% … +2.7% | -4.26% | MISS | ✗ |
| Oct 29, 18:00 | $80,864 | -0.27% | -2.2% … +2.8% | -4.07% | HIT | ✗ |
| Oct 29, 17:00 | $80,892 | -0.06% | -2.2% … +4.2% | -4.36% | HIT | ✗ |
| Oct 29, 16:00 | $81,270 | -0.36% | -2.7% … +4.2% | -5.29% | HIT | ✗ |
| Oct 29, 15:00 | $81,778 | -1.76% | -4.1% … +1.6% | -6.18% | HIT | ✗ |
| Oct 29, 14:00 | $81,178 | -1.03% | -3.4% … +2.4% | -5.22% | HIT | ✗ |
| Oct 29, 13:00 | $80,305 | -1.00% | -4.2% … +2.3% | -4.19% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 29, 12:00 | $80,058 | -0.69% | -3.9% … +1.5% | -4.24% | HIT | ✗ |
| Oct 29, 11:00 | $80,170 | -1.19% | -4.9% … +1.2% | -3.71% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 29, 10:00 | $80,285 | -1.43% | -5.0% … +1.5% | -3.65% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 29, 09:00 | $80,207 | -1.34% | -4.6% … +1.5% | -3.22% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 29, 08:00 | $80,070 | -0.98% | -3.1% … +2.4% | -3.52% | HIT | ✗ |
| Oct 29, 07:00 | $79,862 | -0.78% | -4.0% … +2.9% | -3.37% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 29, 06:00 | $79,969 | -1.37% | -4.9% … +2.2% | -3.12% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 29, 05:00 | $80,234 | -1.28% | -5.5% … +2.2% | -3.55% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 29, 04:00 | $80,256 | -1.57% | -5.5% … +2.1% | -3.02% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 29, 03:00 | $79,858 | -0.69% | -4.7% … +3.0% | -2.70% | HIT | ✓ |
| Oct 29, 02:00 | $79,964 | +0.10% | -4.6% … +5.9% | -2.42% | MISS | ✓ |
| Oct 29, 01:00 | $80,020 | +2.26% | -2.1% … +7.2% | -2.29% | MISS | ✗ |
| Oct 29, 24:00 | $81,106 | +1.70% | -1.3% … +5.8% | -3.03% | MISS | ✗ |
| Oct 28, 23:00 | $81,344 | +1.37% | -1.3% … +5.7% | -3.43% | MISS | ✗ |
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