Live · Candle Analogues

The last 5 candles have happened before

We take the shape of the last 5 candles — body against range, which side the wicks are on, each bar's size relative to current volatility — and search every bar in history for the closest matches. What you get is how far price moved after them, not which way. Direction after a candle pattern is a coin flip, and the panel below says so with the number.

candles
horizon
BTCUSDT5m last 64,972
click any bar to replay it
120 bars · wheel to zoom · drag to pan · click a bar to replay it · double-click to reset
scenario 1 / 50
2/23/2026, 5:00:00 AMsimilarity 0.9075 after 10 bars +0.22% range +0.66% / -0.01%
▮ the last 5 candles, the pattern being matched▯ the analogue's own candles, over the window they matched▮ what followed it, replayed as candles on today's price◣ p10–p90 of all 50 analogues after 10 bars◺ the same band from all history, for comparison

The replay is one thing that happened after a similar shape, not a prediction. Scrub through the scenarios and you will see them go both ways — that is the point, and it is why we show the band rather than a direction.

Typical move over 10 bars
±0.20%

Mean absolute move after the 50 closest analogues. This is the part that carries information — how much, not which way.

Band coverage over 200 past anchors
analogues91.5% [87–95]
trivial96.0% [92–98]
should be80%

Over-covers by 11.5pp — the band is wider than it needs to be, so it says less than it looks like it does. Its interval overlaps the trivial band's, so the two are not distinguishable here.

Direction — not a signal
34%

of analogues went up. Across 5m/15m/1h and 3/5/8-candle windows the nearest neighbour called direction 48.9–50.7% of the time — indistinguishable from a coin flip. We show this number so you can see it is one, and we do not turn it into a call.

Closest analogues in history

WhenSimilarityMove over 10 barsOverlay
2/23/2026, 5:00:00 AM0.9075+0.22%on chart
5/28/2026, 6:10:00 AM0.8899+0.25%replay
3/7/2026, 5:45:00 PM0.8895-0.46%replay
8/2/2026, 6:10:00 AM0.8869+0.06%replay
5/23/2026, 3:20:00 AM0.8858+0.04%replay
5/22/2026, 9:25:00 PM0.8839-0.28%replay
6/16/2026, 9:00:00 PM0.8821-0.12%replay
5/15/2026, 5:15:00 PM0.8808+0.23%replay
1/21/2026, 10:00:00 PM0.8799-0.33%replay
6/25/2026, 5:45:00 PM0.8758-0.13%replay
8/3/2026, 6:05:00 PM0.8755-0.06%replay
3/27/2026, 9:20:00 PM0.8693-0.22%replay
3/11/2026, 7:40:00 PM0.8690-0.25%replay
7/19/2026, 1:30:00 AM0.8673+0.09%replay
7/12/2026, 8:40:00 AM0.8672-0.18%replay
5/23/2026, 10:35:00 AM0.8665+0.08%replay
4/8/2026, 1:55:00 AM0.8657-0.12%replay
4/27/2026, 3:25:00 AM0.8650-0.26%replay
4/12/2026, 6:20:00 AM0.8622-0.12%replay
6/17/2026, 9:05:00 PM0.8610-0.16%replay