{
  "fetchedAt": "2026-10-03T13:07:44.678576+00:00",
  "endpoint": "https://aipricepatterns.com/api/mcp",
  "request": {
    "jsonrpc": "2.0",
    "id": "evaluate_candle_hypothesis",
    "method": "tools/call",
    "params": {
      "name": "evaluate_candle_hypothesis",
      "arguments": {
        "symbol": "SOLUSDT",
        "interval": "1h",
        "q": 5,
        "f": 10,
        "anchorTs": 1791028800000,
        "levelPrice": 120,
        "targetPrice": 121.2,
        "invalidationPrice": 118.8
      }
    }
  },
  "response": {
    "contract": "candle-hypothesis/v1",
    "summary": "13/20 complete historical analogues reached 120 within 10 bars. After reach: 6 target first, 3 invalidation first, 2 ambiguous, 2 unresolved.",
    "researchStatus": "HISTORICAL_EVIDENCE_AVAILABLE",
    "selection": {
      "symbol": "SOLUSDT",
      "interval": "1h",
      "q": 5,
      "f": 10,
      "anchorTs": 1791028800000,
      "rankingMethod": "memoryExactV1"
    },
    "hypothesis": {
      "entryPrice": 119.48,
      "levelPrice": 120,
      "reachDirection": "up",
      "levelOffsetPct": 0.43521928356209383,
      "targetPrice": 121.2,
      "invalidationPrice": 118.8
    },
    "reach": {
      "samples": 20,
      "touched": 13,
      "notTouched": 7,
      "historicalTouchSharePct": 65,
      "firstTouchBar": {
        "samples": 13,
        "p10": 1,
        "p50": 2,
        "p90": 6.600000000000001
      }
    },
    "afterTouch": {
      "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": {
        "samples": 13,
        "p10": -1.175008892331706,
        "p50": -0.16371105864926294,
        "p90": 1.1126595908766657
      },
      "sequence": {
        "denominator": "touched_episodes",
        "samples": 13,
        "target_first": 6,
        "invalidation_first": 3,
        "ambiguous": 2,
        "unresolved": 2
      }
    },
    "dataQuality": {
      "retrieved": 20,
      "usable": 20,
      "excluded": [],
      "smallSample": true
    },
    "episodes": [
      {
        "analogueAnchorTs": 1788570000000,
        "when": "2026-09-05T01:00:00Z",
        "permalink": "https://aipricepatterns.com/candles?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=1h&q=5&f=10&anchorTs=1788570000000",
        "touched": true,
        "firstTouchBar": 5,
        "terminalPrice": 120.04297634239715,
        "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": 0.03581361866429322,
        "sequence": "unresolved"
      },
      {
        "analogueAnchorTs": 1719133200000,
        "when": "2024-06-23T09:00:00Z",
        "permalink": "https://aipricepatterns.com/candles?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=1h&q=5&f=10&anchorTs=1719133200000",
        "touched": false,
        "firstTouchBar": null,
        "terminalPrice": 116.6060935412027,
        "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": null,
        "sequence": null
      },
      {
        "analogueAnchorTs": 1769263200000,
        "when": "2026-01-24T14:00:00Z",
        "permalink": "https://aipricepatterns.com/candles?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=1h&q=5&f=10&anchorTs=1769263200000",
        "touched": true,
        "firstTouchBar": 9,
        "terminalPrice": 119.64912865681032,
        "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": -0.29239278599140217,
        "sequence": "unresolved"
      },
      {
        "analogueAnchorTs": 1680411600000,
        "when": "2023-04-02T05:00:00Z",
        "permalink": "https://aipricepatterns.com/candles?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=1h&q=5&f=10&anchorTs=1680411600000",
        "touched": true,
        "firstTouchBar": 2,
        "terminalPrice": 116.97899143672691,
        "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": -2.5175071360609036,
        "sequence": "invalidation_first"
      },
      {
        "analogueAnchorTs": 1662206400000,
        "when": "2022-09-03T12:00:00Z",
        "permalink": "https://aipricepatterns.com/candles?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=1h&q=5&f=10&anchorTs=1662206400000",
        "touched": false,
        "firstTouchBar": null,
        "terminalPrice": 119.13523565245272,
        "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": null,
        "sequence": null
      },
      {
        "analogueAnchorTs": 1728212400000,
        "when": "2024-10-06T11:00:00Z",
        "permalink": "https://aipricepatterns.com/candles?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=1h&q=5&f=10&anchorTs=1728212400000",
        "touched": true,
        "firstTouchBar": 2,
        "terminalPrice": 119.80354672962089,
        "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": -0.16371105864926294,
        "sequence": "target_first"
      },
      {
        "analogueAnchorTs": 1772881200000,
        "when": "2026-03-07T11:00:00Z",
        "permalink": "https://aipricepatterns.com/candles?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=1h&q=5&f=10&anchorTs=1772881200000",
        "touched": false,
        "firstTouchBar": null,
        "terminalPrice": 117.53241672572643,
        "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": null,
        "sequence": null
      },
      {
        "analogueAnchorTs": 1680886800000,
        "when": "2023-04-07T17:00:00Z",
        "permalink": "https://aipricepatterns.com/candles?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=1h&q=5&f=10&anchorTs=1680886800000",
        "touched": false,
        "firstTouchBar": null,
        "terminalPrice": 119.30523647001462,
        "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": null,
        "sequence": null
      },
      {
        "analogueAnchorTs": 1650182400000,
        "when": "2022-04-17T08:00:00Z",
        "permalink": "https://aipricepatterns.com/candles?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=1h&q=5&f=10&anchorTs=1650182400000",
        "touched": true,
        "firstTouchBar": 1,
        "terminalPrice": 120.69798862968048,
        "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": 0.5816571914003976,
        "sequence": "target_first"
      },
      {
        "analogueAnchorTs": 1761364800000,
        "when": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z",
        "permalink": "https://aipricepatterns.com/candles?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=1h&q=5&f=10&anchorTs=1761364800000",
        "touched": true,
        "firstTouchBar": 4,
        "terminalPrice": 118.49566345708256,
        "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": -1.2536137857645402,
        "sequence": "invalidation_first"
      },
      {
        "analogueAnchorTs": 1773511200000,
        "when": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
        "permalink": "https://aipricepatterns.com/candles?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=1h&q=5&f=10&anchorTs=1773511200000",
        "touched": true,
        "firstTouchBar": 4,
        "terminalPrice": 121.2370588235294,
        "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": 1.0308823529411537,
        "sequence": "target_first"
      },
      {
        "analogueAnchorTs": 1766304000000,
        "when": "2025-12-21T08:00:00Z",
        "permalink": "https://aipricepatterns.com/candles?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=1h&q=5&f=10&anchorTs=1766304000000",
        "touched": true,
        "firstTouchBar": 1,
        "terminalPrice": 119.07085450346422,
        "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": -0.7742879137798142,
        "sequence": "invalidation_first"
      },
      {
        "analogueAnchorTs": 1697356800000,
        "when": "2023-10-15T08:00:00Z",
        "permalink": "https://aipricepatterns.com/candles?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=1h&q=5&f=10&anchorTs=1697356800000",
        "touched": false,
        "firstTouchBar": null,
        "terminalPrice": 119.20795992714027,
        "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": null,
        "sequence": null
      },
      {
        "analogueAnchorTs": 1665932400000,
        "when": "2022-10-16T15:00:00Z",
        "permalink": "https://aipricepatterns.com/candles?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=1h&q=5&f=10&anchorTs=1665932400000",
        "touched": true,
        "firstTouchBar": 4,
        "terminalPrice": 119.0413217623498,
        "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": -0.7988985313751695,
        "sequence": "ambiguous"
      },
      {
        "analogueAnchorTs": 1694952000000,
        "when": "2023-09-17T12:00:00Z",
        "permalink": "https://aipricepatterns.com/candles?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=1h&q=5&f=10&anchorTs=1694952000000",
        "touched": false,
        "firstTouchBar": null,
        "terminalPrice": 117.78747114375656,
        "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": null,
        "sequence": null
      },
      {
        "analogueAnchorTs": 1768669200000,
        "when": "2026-01-17T17:00:00Z",
        "permalink": "https://aipricepatterns.com/candles?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=1h&q=5&f=10&anchorTs=1768669200000",
        "touched": false,
        "firstTouchBar": null,
        "terminalPrice": 118.45164433955718,
        "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": null,
        "sequence": null
      },
      {
        "analogueAnchorTs": 1724367600000,
        "when": "2024-08-22T23:00:00Z",
        "permalink": "https://aipricepatterns.com/candles?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=1h&q=5&f=10&anchorTs=1724367600000",
        "touched": true,
        "firstTouchBar": 1,
        "terminalPrice": 120.38098031001257,
        "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": 0.3174835916771368,
        "sequence": "ambiguous"
      },
      {
        "analogueAnchorTs": 1693094400000,
        "when": "2023-08-27T00:00:00Z",
        "permalink": "https://aipricepatterns.com/candles?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=1h&q=5&f=10&anchorTs=1693094400000",
        "touched": true,
        "firstTouchBar": 7,
        "terminalPrice": 121.35972468043265,
        "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": 1.1331039003605436,
        "sequence": "target_first"
      },
      {
        "analogueAnchorTs": 1683450000000,
        "when": "2023-05-07T09:00:00Z",
        "permalink": "https://aipricepatterns.com/candles?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=1h&q=5&f=10&anchorTs=1683450000000",
        "touched": true,
        "firstTouchBar": 1,
        "terminalPrice": 121.98049135577799,
        "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": 1.6504094631483168,
        "sequence": "target_first"
      },
      {
        "analogueAnchorTs": 1753513200000,
        "when": "2025-07-26T07:00:00Z",
        "permalink": "https://aipricepatterns.com/candles?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=1h&q=5&f=10&anchorTs=1753513200000",
        "touched": true,
        "firstTouchBar": 1,
        "terminalPrice": 118.96729281767956,
        "terminalChangeFromLevelPct": -0.8605893186003688,
        "sequence": "target_first"
      }
    ],
    "next": [
      {
        "tool": "get_candle_track_record",
        "arguments": {
          "symbol": "SOLUSDT",
          "interval": "1h",
          "q": 5,
          "f": 10
        },
        "purpose": "Grade the underlying range estimate against its baseline. This does not validate the hypothesis strategy."
      },
      {
        "tool": "inspect_candle_analogue",
        "purpose": "Replay a dated episode from this response, using its analogueAnchorTs and the same configuration."
      }
    ],
    "caveats": [
      "These are descriptive frequencies in retrieved historical analogues, not calibrated future probabilities or a strategy win rate.",
      "Paths are rebased to the query close; price thresholds do not model executable fills, fees, slippage or gap execution.",
      "The horizon starts at the query anchor, not at the level touch; late touches have less follow-up time.",
      "Any target or invalidation reached in the touch candle, or both reached in a later candle, is ambiguous because intrabar order is unknown.",
      "Terminal change uses the final close relative to levelPrice, including the touch candle. It is not a realized trade return or a whole-path corridor.",
      "Retrieved episodes may be dependent and the sample is small; hypothesis edge needs separate walk-forward validation."
    ],
    "executionEligibility": {
      "decision": "NO_TRADE",
      "reason": "Retrospective hypothesis evidence does not validate an execution strategy."
    },
    "freshness": {
      "observedAt": 1791028800000,
      "ageMs": 4064533,
      "intervalMs": 3600000,
      "maxAgeMs": 7200000,
      "status": "historical",
      "refreshAttempted": false,
      "refreshError": null,
      "sourceLagBars": null,
      "serverTs": 1791032864533
    },
    "rangeValidation": {
      "ledger": {
        "contract": "candle-analogue-ledger/v2",
        "method": "market_memory_exact_v1",
        "stats": {
          "total": 335,
          "resolved": 325,
          "liveResolved": 206,
          "pending": 10,
          "bandCoverage": 0.8307692307692308
        },
        "winkler": {
          "liveOnly": true,
          "scored": 137,
          "modelBeatsBaseline": false,
          "improvementPct": -1.6294709632235005,
          "modelCoverage": 0.7956204379562044,
          "baselineCoverage": 0.6788321167883211,
          "modelWinkler": 7.121188469360153,
          "baselineWinkler": 7.007011255560983
        },
        "note": "Analogue-band coverage and Winkler vs a trivial historical band. Live Winkler uses backfill=0 only. Not a directional hit rate."
      },
      "note": "Range validation is distinct from validation of this level hypothesis. Use the exact-config track record before claiming range quality."
    }
  }
}